According to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll of 1,815 registered voters conducted January 19-20 and shared exclusively with The Hill, former President Trump is the most likely candidate in the Republican presidential election of 2024, receiving 57 percent of the vote. With a faraway ratio of 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively, DeSantis and Pence are the following two candidates of interest.
If Trump decides not to run for President again, DeSantis will be the frontrunner. The Florida governor received 30% of the vote in a field that did not include Trump, with Pence coming in second with 24%.
The poll comes amid escalating tensions between Trump and DeSantis, who will be re-elected this year but is viewed as a strong contender for the Republican presidential candidacy in 2024.
The poll also highlights Trump’s confidence among Republican voters regarding rerunning in 2024. However, whether he will run for re-election to the White House hasn’t been saying. In preparation for the 2022 midterm elections, he has already increased his political engagement.
Trump, DeSantis, and their supporters have attempted to debunk allegations of a schism between the two Republicans. Trump termed the explanations for the tension “fake news” in a recent interview with Fox News’s Sean Hannity, insisting that he has “a perfect relationship with Ron and intend to have it for a long time.”
Although Biden has said that he intends to run for President again in 2024, he does not enjoy the same level of Democratic support as Trump. In a hypothetical Democratic primary, Biden would have received 32% of the vote, while Harris would have received 14%. On the other hand, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton are tied with 11 percent of the vote.
According to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, Trump has a 46 percent to 40 percent edge against Vice President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head fight. He enjoys a more considerable lead against Vice President Harris, with 49 percent of the vote compared to 39 percent.
Harris will be the frontrunner to win the Democratic presidential nomination if Biden decides to stand down after her current time in office, with 23% of Democratic voters endorsing her. Clinton comes in second with 17% of the vote in such a scenario, while Sanders gets 12%.
“Trump is starting out in a fairly strong position with Republicans while Biden and Harris have surprisingly little support among Democrats for incumbents. Trump is also starting out reasonably well-positioned for the general but he seems to be benefiting by being out of the limelight and no telling what would happen if he steps back in.”
“It’s way too early to make predictions about 2024,” said Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris survey. “Early polls usually end up not being a good predictor of what happens.”
The poll of 1,815 registered voters was conducted in partnership with Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll. It’s a weighted online sample gathered from the Harris Dashboard.