According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Monday, citing Chen Mingtong 陈明通, Taiwan National Security Bureau Head, it is unlikely for Beijing to send forces to Taiwan.
Chen responded to questions on whether China would attack Taiwan in a legislative meeting amid ongoing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
His response is based on the Russian experience in Ukraine.
Wen Yu-hsia 溫玉霞, from Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, asked Chen to evaluate the chances of an attack. Chen said that China had learned from the Russians and would not rashly send forces to Taiwan.
According to Deutsche Welle, from Chen’s professional viewpoint, Beijing would be unlikely to send forces to attack Taiwan in the next three years of the remaining tenure of President Tsai Ing-wen.
However, Chen added that Taiwan must be well-prepared and maintain vigilance.
According to Reuters, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Hua Chunying 华春莹 said Taiwan is not Ukraine. She added that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.
Regarding other lessons learned from the war, according to Chen, China has been surprised by the international sanctions and will be more careful in making any move.
Additionally, as Reuters reported, Chen Mingtong said that the United States has emphasized that it will adhere to the “Taiwan Relations Act.” Therefore, he emphasized that China will be more cautious about when to use force against Taiwan.