As the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China approaches, the distribution of power and staffing of the authorities affects the political situation in China, the international situation, and the Taiwan Strait. The public opinion focuses on Xi Jinping, who is expected to continue centralizing China’s supreme leadership power. However, Xi is also facing significant difficulties.
According to the Central News Agency, Long Yingtai Cultural Organization, a joint venture legal entity, held a seminar with the theme “Xi Jinping: The New Situation after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China” in Taipei on September 4. Kou Jianwen is the keynote speaker.
Kou Jianwen thinks power will be concentrated after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Xi Jinping, health permitting, will not share power if he does not have a sense of security.
Will there be a successor appointed at the 20th Congress? He believes that only those born after the mid-1960s have a chance. Therefore, the youngest of the former Politburo members is Deputy Prime Minister Hu Chunhua, born in 1963, but has a deficient ability. “Hu Chunhua may be a member of the Standing Committee, but it is unlikely to be Xi Jinping’s successor.”
Regarding Taiwan policy, Kou Jianwen pointed out that the CCP’s third white paper on Taiwan mentions that anti-independence, anti-foreign interference, and promotion of reunification go hand in hand. In addition, the “Two-Systems Taiwan Plan” content is more straightforward than before, not mentioning sending troops and officials to Taiwan but strengthening foreign and international organizations to set up governmental or non-governmental organizations in Taiwan.
Kou Jianwen reminded us that Taiwan’s response method should use innovative power to respond. Taiwan will be very passive if the major parties only focus on elections and party struggles. On the eve of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, many places in the mainland were locked down and tightly controlled, causing people to complain everywhere.
Xi Jinping faces three major crises at the same time
Taiwan general economist Wu Jialong pointed out in a Facebook post that Xi Jinping has three issues to worry about:
1) Xi Jinping faces multiple economic crises simultaneously, especially since the real estate bubble burst and China’s economy has not recovered.
Xi must continue to push the fight against the epidemic to cover up the economy’s failure. Even if it may cause the economy to go down, he must not hesitate! People cannot distinguish whether the cause is an economic failure or an epidemic.
2) Xi Jinping knows that the Communist army cannot attack Taiwan. As for missile launches, the drill to blockade Taiwan is not enough to achieve a deterrent effect. To avoid scrutiny, Xi Jinping forced his subordinates to play hard and cruelly and play the game “strategy of war.” He wants to show the party he is serious about handling Taiwan and asks everyone to allow his second term.
3) As U.S.-China relations deteriorate, Xi Jinping still thinks that “the east is rising and the west is declining.” As the U.S. declines, its weakness can be exploited through “red intrusion,” so he challenged the United States. As a result, the United States discovered the CCP’s expansionist and hegemonic ambitions.
“On the surface, the United States and China share diplomatic relations, but in reality they are calculating with each other and fighting with each other, which is very bitter,” said Mr. Wu Jialong. In brief, Xi must deal with the three significant crises ahead:
- The economic storm
- A deteriorating relationship with Taiwan
- The fractured relationship with the United States
He further pointed out that facing a crisis is not terrible.
Xi Jinping hides and bides his time
Analysts say the CCP faces many difficulties, prompting the leader to maintain strength.
Even if Beijing wanted to shift its focus to Taiwan, it couldn’t. Japan has highlighted the Chinese threat to justify rearmament. The United States wanted to deal with the CCP’s rise as a great power to maintain world hegemony, so it resisted the CCP.
Wu Jialong said that the United States, Japan, and Taiwan had entered a historical period of trilateral strategic cooperation, and the CCP clearly could not do it all.
Moreover, Australia, India, and Europe are nearby, ready to join at any time to give credit to the U.S. The CCP’s main ally, Russia, is consumed by the Ukraine war and cannot free itself. The United States did not send troops to Ukraine precisely to prepare to send troops to the Western Pacific.
Wu Jialong put it bluntly, no matter how he plays on the surface, the only thing Xi Jinping can do is keep as much as he can. “After all, a hero won’t be lost immediately. Of course, Xi Jinping must also try to make the United States not see that he is adopting this strategy.”