Decades of peace between the European mainland countries came to an end on a haunting night marked by a speech by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. Massive explosions quickly occurred throughout the capital, Kyiv, and the Russian army attacked Ukraine as the world had predicted.
CNN quoted NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg saying, “Peace on our continent has been shattered. We now have war in Europe, on a scale and of a type we thought belonged to history.”
According to CNN, Ukraine aspires to a future in the West, but Putin sees their quest for democracy as a threat to his own autocratic rule and doesn’t want Ukraine to achieve its dream of NATO membership.
The world once again names Taiwan because of concerns about its democracy and the expansion of the Chinese government. Taiwan may be next.
Micheal Schuman, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said in his article titled “Is Taiwan Next?” on February 24th, starting with this quote: “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine makes the frightening possibility of China seizing control of the island more real.”
While Russian tanks are rolling on the territory of Ukraine, Taiwan has become the most dangerous place as Beijing has always sought to claim the island, which is now even more possible.
Micheal also said, “That’s not necessarily because there is a direct link between Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Beijing’s menacing of Taiwan, but because the war for Ukraine is the most unfortunate indication yet of the frightening direction of global geopolitics: Autocrats are striking back.”
Just as Putin cannot accept Ukraine’s sovereignty, China will not accept Taiwan’s independence because they call gaining control over Taiwan “reunification,” which is also a primary goal of China’s foreign policy.
The debate “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” is raging in Taiwan. Headlines in major newspapers on Feb. 25 focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Previously, this topic of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had become a hot topic of discussion.
A day earlier, in an editorial on Feb. 24, the “Liberty Times” 《自由时报》asked whether Beijing was acting recklessly.
Therefore, the raising question is whether Being takes the advantage to invade Taiwan.
A few months ago, the whole world had the same question about whether Afghanistan today and Taiwan tomorrow. The rapid collapse of the US-backed Afghanistan government has sparked heated debate in Taiwan over whether Taiwan suffers the same fate when facing a Chinese invasion.
The Chinese published an article about “Afghanistan today, Taiwan tomorrow” in the Global Times, China’s mouthpiece, prompting Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu to write on Twitter that “China dreams of emulating the Taliban” while saying that “We’ve got the will & means to defend ourselves.”
In addition to the non-military threat, China also carried out an unprecedented number of aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, making the situation look tense.
In an article reported by CNBC on Feb. 15, political analysts claim that China is particularly watching with interest given its claim on Taiwan. None of those who spoke with CNBC suggested a Chinese attack on Taiwan, while Russia attacked Ukraine.
Robert Daly, Director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S., told CNBC that Chinese President Xi Jinping “is looking to see how much the United States can muster relative to Ukraine, and will always have Taiwan in mind because Beijing always has Taiwan in mind.”
Robert said he wouldn’t consider Taiwan and Ukraine exactly parallel, as China knew Taiwan was more important to the U.S. than Ukraine.
Currently, the Chinese regime has no other move apart from trying to maintain its neutral stance and calling for peace from both sides of Russia and Ukraine.
At the annual press conference on the 24th, Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, also did not mention Taiwan’s name in her responses.
There are some reasons that the Chinese regime is being cautious
It can be seen that the immediate future of China is the 2022 National Delegate Congress, which is about to take place in the next six months. Xi’s infighting and purges have stirred up Zhongnanhai waves big enough.
In addition, the large-scale boycott of the Olympics recently brought the world’s attention to Beijing.
Assessing the situation of China’s attack on Taiwan, The Atlantic also said that the possibility of war in Taiwan will increase. However, “That doesn’t mean a Chinese attack on Taiwan is imminent. It is impossible to predict with certainty what Xi may be thinking about Taiwan in the aftermath of Putin’s Ukraine war.”