According to Apollo News, military scholars believe many countries have overestimated the Chinese army’s capabilities.
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have fueled concerns over Japan’s national security. Some scholars think Japan’s lifeline would be at risk once the Chinese army occupied Taiwan. But some doubt China’s military command and combat capabilities.
In reaction to the recent visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted live-fire exercises in the Bohai and Yellow Seas.
With the PLA’s military drills, in addition to Taiwan, China is targeting Japan.
Military scholar Guan Min believes that Japan is worried about Taiwan’s security because Taiwan is in the middle of the “first island chain,” which consists of a group of islands, including Taiwan, Okinawa, and the Philippines.
If Taiwan falls to the PLA, the “first island chain” jointly maintained by Japan, the U.S., and other countries will be lost and threaten the security of Japan and the western Pacific region. The PLA will control the route from China to Taiwan and the Pacific Ocean.
It would put Japan’s “lifeline” at risk.
A scholar said Japan has depended on the United States since World War II. They did not develop their military industry. Instead, they entrusted the United States to ensure the defense and protection of Japan’s security.
If Taiwan is invaded, the PLA will control the Taiwan Strait, and Japan is likely to have a significant security crisis because it survives by sea transportation.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe once said that if there were something wrong with Taiwan, there would be something wrong with Japan.
Guan Min said that if China wants to launch a war in the Taiwan Strait or use force to annex Taiwan, it will face a challenge from the United States and Japan.
Guan Min believes that the Chinese army will not easily take military action against Taiwan, and it is now at the stage of making verbal threats.
The combat capabilities of the Chinese generals and soldiers are in question.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese leader Xi Jinping mentioned in a phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden four days before Pelosi’s Taiwan visit that China has no plans to go to war.
In fact, since the China-Vietnam War in 1979, the Chinese army has not had actual combat experience for decades.
In addition, many of these senior officials are unqualified due to the prevalence of buying positions among military officials more than a decade ago. They do not understand tactics well.
The military equipment displayed by China in recent years does not represent the military-technical level mastered by Chinese soldiers.
Mr. Su, a commentator on current affairs, also pointed out that a series of anti-corruption activities within the Chinese army have caused instability in the military.
Not many of the generals of this army are particularly loyal to the communist party now. They are not interested in war but are fighting for their power.