According to a poll results reported by the media outlet Foreign Policy on March 31, a majority of U.S. experts believed that the China-Taiwan conflict would not break out.
The survey, conducted by the Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) program of the William & Mary Institute for Global Studies, gathered information from 7,800 international relations scholars at U.S. academic institutions.
TRIP interviewed 812 people between April and May last year, 760 people between December last year and January this year, and 866 in March. The three rounds saw a consistency of nearly 70% of the respondents projected that China would not invade Taiwan this year.
Regarding how the U.S. should react if a physical conflict were to occur, as of March this year, more than 90% agreed that the U.S. should penalize China with sanctions, and 80% voted in favor of supporting the island nation with weapons and military aid.
72% of the experts believed Washington should send the army to the region. 49.24% of the respondents approve of launching a cyberattack on the Chinese army. However, there was little support for the U.S. to directly confront China, with only 18.41% accepting the idea.
It is worth noting that the percentages of those supporting actions from the U.S. in general in the hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan increased in March compared to January. The survey’s organizer concluded that this had reflected a change in mindset after the Ukraine invasion.
When asked about the chances of China invading Taiwan after the Ukraine war, 46.2% believe that the situation in Ukraine will not affect China’s consideration of Taiwan. Less than 20% of scholars believe that China could make a move.